Many factors affect an asset's price volatility in a market. A good place to start analysing some of the causes is to look at the market's liquidity. Now, market liquidity cannot be calculated to a precise value but more so expresses the sensitive relationship between price, buyers, sellers and their ability to execute transactions.
Market liquidity refers to the ease with which market participants can buy or sell assets without significantly affecting the price. The level of market liquidity can have a significant impact on price action.
Generally, when there is a high market liquidity, it means that there are many buyers and sellers in the market, and transactions can be executed quickly and at low costs. This can translate to having a smoother price action because the market is capable of absorbing buy and sell pressures.
When there is low market liquidity, it means there are fewer buyers and sellers in the market and transactions can experience friction, that is, it may take longer to execute and come at a higher cost. Even a small buy or sell order could lead to volatile price movement.
Remember, buyers and sellers are trying to get the best outcome for themselves. If the market has high liquidity, the bid and asking price between buyers and sellers are being satisfied, suggesting the price level reflects what the market considers to be the fundamental value of the asset being traded.
In times of low market liquidity, prices can become detached from their fundamental values and may be driven more by sentiment and speculation. For example, if there are only a few sellers willing to sell their Bitcoins, a large buy order could easily drive up the price, as the demand exceeds the supply. Similarly, if there are only a few buyers willing to buy Bitcoins, a large sell order could easily drive down the price.
Here are three indicators that help asses market liquidity:
Trading Volume: One way to gauge the liquidity level of an asset is to look at its trading volume. High trading volumes have greater liquidity, as they have more market participants buying and selling the asset.
Bid-Ask Spread: Another indicator of market liquidity is the bid-ask spread, which is the difference between the highest price a buyer is willing to pay for an asset (bid) and the lowest price a seller is willing to accept (ask). A lower bid-ask spread indicates a higher level of liquidity, as there are more buyers and sellers willing to trade at similar prices.
Order Book Depth: The order book depth refers to the number of buy and sell orders at different price levels. A deeper order book with more buy and sell orders indicates a higher level of liquidity, as there are more participants in the market.
The Bitcoin halving is less than a year away (April 2024) and the supply of BTC into the market will reduce from 6.25 Bitcoin per block to 3.125 Bitcoin per block. This will likely have an effect on market liquidity along with the fundamental value of BTC as it becomes more scarce.